Weekly Economic Outlook: 22–26 September 2025
A busy week of regional confidence reads, manufacturing PMIs, a key central bank decision, and the U.S. core inflation print kept markets on edge. Data spanned growth, inflation, and money-supply metrics — themes that helped steer FX flows, safe-haven bids, and commodity positioning. Below we highlight the releases, likely market reactions, and actionable levels.
Monday, 22 September
United States – Chicago Fed National Activity (Aug)
Time: 08:30 GMT+4
A softer print would underline cooling U.S. activity and dent dollar momentum; a stronger reading would reinforce resilience.
- Below consensus: DXY may slip toward 96.80–97.00
- Above consensus: USD strength resumes; EUR/USD pressured toward 1.0720
Canada – IPPI YoY (Aug)
Time: 08:30 GMT+4
Higher factory-gate prices lift near-term inflation expectations and can support CAD.
- 0.5%: USD/CAD may test 1.3420 (CAD firm)
- <0.0%: CAD softens; 1.3550 resistance reasserted
Eurozone – Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Time: 10:00 GMT+4
A weaker sentiment print keeps the euro on the back foot ahead of PMIs.
- Below -12: EUR/USD risks 1.0780
- Above -8: Euro finds support; 1.0920 resistance eyed
South Korea – PPI YoY (Aug)
Time: 17:00 GMT+4
Upstream price pressure can feed into CPI and export competitiveness.
- Rising PPI: KRW firmer if exporters pass costs through
Tuesday, 23 September
Eurozone – HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Time: 04:00 GMT+4
A contractive print (<50) would prolong euro weakness; expansionary print could spark relief rallies.
- <50.0: EUR/USD may slip to 1.0750
- 50.5: Euro edges toward 1.0880
UK – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Time: 04:30 GMT+4
A softer print raises doubts on BoE tightening; sterling vulnerable at key technical bands.
- <48.5: GBP/USD risks 1.2750
- 50.0: Sterling may test 1.2880
US – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Time: 09:45 GMT+4
A better-than-expected read supports USD and cyclical assets.
- 52.0: DXY lifts; EUR/USD pressured
Japan – au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Time: 20:30 GMT+4
Stronger Japanese PMIs can underpin yen via risk/tech flows.
- Firm print: JPY receives safe-haven support versus risk currencies
Wednesday, 24 September
Switzerland – ZEW Expectations (Sep)
Time: 04:00 GMT+4
Improvement in expectations would reduce CHF safe-haven demand modestly.
- <-20: CHF strength resumes; USD/CHF dips toward 0.7840
- -10: CHF eases; 0.7920 resistance tested
Germany – Ifo Business Climate (Sep)
Time: 04:00 GMT+4
A softer Ifo amplifies euro downside; a surprise improvement can spark short covering.
- Drop below prior: EUR/USD may revisit 1.0780
- Beat: EUR attempts 1.0920
United States – New Home Sales (Aug)
Time: 10:00 GMT+4
Housing data informs growth outlook and Treasury yields.
- Weaker: Treasury yields fall; risk assets lose momentum
- Stronger: Yields rise; cyclical currencies firm
Russia – Industrial Production YoY (Aug)
Time: 12:00 GMT+4
Above-consensus prints support RUB on economic activity narrative, though geopolitical risk caps gains.
Thursday, 25 September
France – Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Time: 02:45 GMT+4
A weak print reinforces euro area consumption worries.
- Below expectations: EUR under pressure toward 1.0780
Switzerland – SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)
Time: 03:30 GMT+4
SNB hold with hawkish undertone lifts CHF; dovish language weakens it. Watch vote tone and liquidity comments.
- Hawkish: USD/CHF may fall toward 0.7840
- Dovish: USD/CHF could rebound to 0.7920
Eurozone – M3 Money Supply YoY (Aug)
Time: 04:00 GMT+4
Slower M3 suggests tighter lending and weighs on EUR rallies.
- Decline: EUR upside capped; focus shifts to policy transmission
South Africa – PPI YoY (Aug)
Time: 05:30 GMT+4
Higher PPI supports ZAR on inflation pass-through concerns and potential monetary response.
Friday, 26 September
United States – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
Time: 11:30 GMT+4
A firmer GDPNow lifts rate-sensitive assets and USD; a downgrade would favour safe havens.
- Upgrade: USD strength; equities more resilient
United States – Core PCE (YoY) (Aug)
Time: 08:30 GMT+4
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the primary week-ender. An elevated print keeps Fed easing gradual and supports the dollar.
- Above consensus: DXY firmer; risk assets pressured
- Below consensus: Dovish repricing; yields and USD soften
United States – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)
Time: 10:00 GMT+4
Improving sentiment supports discretionary risk appetite; a drop curtails retail/consumer exposure.
China – Industrial Profit YTD (Aug)
Time: 21:30 GMT+4
Stronger profits in China lift commodity currencies and cyclical equities in Asia.
- Beat: Commodity FX and EM risk assets gain into weekend
FX Levels to Watch
- EUR/USD: 1.0780 support — 1.0920 resistance
- GBP/USD: 1.2750 near-term base — 1.2880 cap
- USD/CHF: 0.7840 support — 0.7920 resistance
- DXY: 96.80–97.80 trading band to watch for spillover into majors
Outlook and Takeaways
The week reinforced the growth vs inflation trade: softening activity kept rates on a cautious path while sticky underlying inflation limited rapid easing. Traders should respect key technical bands and lean into range strategies for major pairs, watching event risk (SNB, Core PCE) for breakout cues. Commodities and Asia-linked currencies will remain sensitive to Chinese profit and industrial data. Prepare for October central bank calendars and U.S. labor prints as the next major drivers.